Page 37 - Standard Indicators for the social appropriation of science
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role. In other parts of the world, WMO keeps whether with a lot of climate protection or with
the archives or finances their maintenance and less climate protection. There are very big
the quality of the data. differences between different countries, such
as how many coal-fired power plants are built,
Are climate models reliable? I remember a but also what volcanic eruptions there could be
somewhat sceptical professor who claimed and so on. It is clear that none of these courses
that predictive models were not entirely will occur exactly, because we do not know what
reliable. decisions the USA or China or other countries
will make. Nevertheless, one of the lines will
Obviously predictive models have uncertainty, be able to describe the course approximately,
about whether it will go up one degree, or one because there are just so many. In conclusion,
degree and a half, or half a degree, but there is it remains to say that political decisions do not
total confidence that it will increase. So, there flow directly into the model, but indirectly.
are many deniers – hard or soft ones – who
hide behind this little uncertainty. If they tell you I once read in the newspaper that the models
that the house you are in is going to collapse are now so complex that the computers can
in a minute and you are going to die and then no longer calculate it. Is that true? Would
I tell you: “well, we don’t know if it will be in a one have to simplify the models again, even
minute, or in a minute twenty... would you leave if one would get less reliable statements?
the building or not?”. That is the uncertainty, of
whether it will be in a minute or one and a half, No one has the model completely in his head,
but it is sure that it will collapse, there is no as the models do not consist of a long code,
doubt whatsoever. which is then calculated from A to Z, but that
consists of very many modules, with which
Are political decisions also included in the attempt is made through basic research
model calculations? For example, if a to come as close as possible to reality. There
certain decision is made in China to reduce are a lot of process studies and measurement
CO emissions or if diesel cars are banned campaigns that try to check certain parts of
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in Germany – how does this enter into the such models, so that one becomes better
model calculations and what does this in this one area, so that the whole model
mean for the simulation? becomes better. Of course, the whole thing
then becomes very complex at some point,
This is not included in the model calculations but basically that is still not complex enough,
because we do not know what the future will because nature is even more complex. But it
look like. That means we have to imagine turns out that in the development of the last
what the future could look like. And there are 30-50 years in this direction, there were no
many scenarios for this. We don’t include changes so strong that we would have been
such concrete political decisions, because completely wrong. The increasing complexity
they can’t be predicted precisely enough. But confirms again and again the results of the
it is assumed, for example, that a society will past generations of models.
actively pursue more climate protection in the
future and emit less CO or methane. Such Impacts of climate change
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scenarios, of which there are hundreds, can
be on a local level, but also on a global level. What effects will climate change have in the
It’s called a spaghetti plot because there are future?
an incredible number of lines that try to reflect
the range of how humanity could develop – There are realistic scenarios that show an
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